Esports matches are not always easy to call. A team can come into a game after several good results and still lose to an opponent that does not look as strong on paper. The opposite happens too. One bad tournament does not necessarily mean that a team has suddenly become a poor side.
There are quite a few things that can change the situation. A new player, a different map pool or simply a bad matchup can make a difference. Patches are another thing to keep in mind, especially in games where the meta changes regularly.
Our esports predictions cover CS2, League of Legends, Dota 2 and Valorant. We look at the teams, their recent games and the circumstances around the match before making a prediction.
Esports match predictions
When looking at an esports match, the first question is usually quite simple: how have these teams actually been playing?
The league table does not always give the full picture. A team might have a better record because it has faced weaker opposition, for example. Recent results need some context as well.
Previous meetings can help, particularly if the teams have played each other recently and the lineups have stayed mostly the same. If half of the roster has changed since that match, however, there is little point treating the old result as a perfect comparison.
The format matters too. A best-of-three is very different from a single-game match. In a longer series, there is more time to adjust and make changes after the first map or game.
CS2 predictions
Map vetoes are a big part of CS2 predictions. A team might have an impressive overall record but still have obvious weaknesses in its map pool. Those weaknesses can become much more important once the veto is known.
Recent performances are useful as well. We look at who the team has been beating and losing to, rather than only counting the wins and losses. Individual form can also be relevant, particularly when one player has been performing far above or below his usual level.
The lineup should not be overlooked. If a team has recently brought in a new player, some older results may no longer tell us much. The same applies when players have moved into different roles.
Head-to-head results are useful as a reference, but they are not enough on their own. A match from six months ago between two completely different lineups is hardly the same matchup.
League of Legends predictions
In League of Legends, the draft can have a huge impact on the game. Two teams may look fairly even before the draft, only for one side to get a much better setup for the way it wants to play.
The current patch is therefore important. Teams also need time to adjust to changes, and some lineups handle those changes better than others.
Recent games can show what a team is currently trying to do. Does it play around the bot lane? Does it look for early fights? Is it more comfortable waiting for objectives? These details can be more useful than simply looking at the win percentage.
Individual players matter too. A strong jungler or an in-form mid laner can have a big influence on how the rest of the team plays.
There is still value in looking at previous meetings, but the date of the match matters. Old head-to-head records can quickly become outdated after a roster change or a major patch.
Dota 2 predictions
Dota 2 is probably one of the hardest esports to analyse purely from the results. The draft can completely change the matchup, and a team that looks weaker statistically may have a much better setup for a particular opponent.
For our Dota 2 predictions, we look at recent series and the heroes each team has been using. Player form is another part of the analysis, especially when a player has a relatively small hero pool or relies heavily on a few preferred picks.
The meta can change quickly after a patch. Something that worked a month ago might not be nearly as effective now. Because of that, older results need to be treated carefully.
The way teams react during a series is worth watching as well. Some teams are very good at changing their approach after losing the opening game. Others can have problems once their original plan stops working.
Valorant predictions
Map selection is one of the first things to check in Valorant. Teams can have very different results depending on where they play, and a strong overall record does not necessarily mean that every map is a strength.
Recent games give us a better idea of the current situation. We also look at the opponents involved, since beating weaker teams on a favourite map does not tell us as much as performing well against a top team.
Playstyle can make certain matchups particularly interesting. Some teams are comfortable taking fights early, while others are happier playing more patiently and waiting for an opening.
Roster changes are another thing to watch. A new player can add quality to the lineup, but there is usually an adjustment period. Roles and communication do not always fall into place immediately.
How are our esports predictions prepared?
There is no magic formula for esports predictions. A statistic that is useful for one match can be almost meaningless for another.
We normally start with recent games. The result is obviously important, but we also check who the opponent was and how the match played out. A comfortable win against a struggling team is not the same as beating one of the best teams at the tournament.
Then we look at the current lineup. This is especially important in esports because rosters can change quite often. A new player may take over a different role, which can affect the way the whole team plays.
Map pools are particularly relevant in CS2 and Valorant. If one team is consistently strong on maps that are likely to appear in the series, that can be more significant than a small difference in the overall rankings.
The tournament situation is also taken into account. A first group match is not necessarily approached in the same way as a playoff game where one team is about to be eliminated.
For League of Legends and Dota 2, we pay more attention to drafts, hero or champion priorities and the current meta. CS2 and Valorant require a closer look at maps, vetoes and individual matchups.
The final prediction comes from putting these pieces together. There is no single number that decides the result. The aim is to work out what could give one team an advantage in this particular match.
When are esports predictions updated?
Esports predictions can change before a match starts. This is usually because new information becomes available.
Lineups are a good example. A player may be replaced shortly before the game, or a team may announce a substitute that was not expected when the original prediction was written.
Tournament news can matter too. So can a late roster update or anything else that changes the expected lineup.
For that reason, checking the prediction on match day can be useful. The closer the match gets, the more information is normally available about who will play and what to expect from the series.