Picking MLB games isn't always as straightforward as it looks. I've seen plenty of matchups where the favourite seemed obvious, yet the odds made me think twice. That's usually when I start digging a little deeper. My first stop is the starting pitcher. Who's throwing tonight? Has he been giving up too many walks? And how long is he likely to stay in the game? I don't want to back a team with a good starter only to find out its bullpen is running on empty.
Recent results matter, but I take them with a pinch of salt. Winning four games in a row sounds great. It tells me much less if the team has barely faced any decent pitching.
MLB Game Predictions
Some games catch my attention straight away. Others take a bit more work, and a few aren't worth touching at all.
I usually compare the pitching matchup with the teams' recent hitting numbers. Then I check who's missing from the lineup and whether either bullpen has been overworked. A team might look strong on paper, but losing its best hitter can change my opinion pretty quickly.
I also check the odds before settling on a pick. There's no point backing a team simply because I think it will win. The price has to make sense, too.
MLB Moneyline Predictions
Moneyline is the easiest market to understand. Pick the winner and you're done.
Choosing the right team is another matter. Take the Dodgers, for example. They're often an appealing side, but I wouldn't back them blindly against every opponent. If their starter has been struggling and the other team has a favourable pitching matchup, I'd want to look at the price before making a decision.
Sometimes the underdog catches my eye. I'm not saying I'll bet on it every time, but I won't dismiss it just because it's expected to lose.
MLB Run Line Predictions
The standard run line is usually -1.5 or +1.5. Back a team at -1.5 and it needs to win by at least two runs.
This market can be frustrating. Your team might lead for most of the night, give up a late run and finish with a one-run win. The moneyline wins. The run line doesn't.
That's why I look at how a team scores, not just how often it wins. If I expect a tight game, I'd rather consider the moneyline than chase a bigger payout with -1.5.
MLB Over/Under Predictions
Totals are where I spend extra time looking at the pitching matchup. Two good starters can keep a game quiet, while tired relievers can turn a low-scoring contest into a mess in the final innings.
Say the total is 8.5 runs. Before taking the over, I'd check whether both teams have been hitting well and how the starters handle home runs and walks. I also look at the weather. Wind blowing towards the outfield can help the hitters, although it doesn't mean the game will automatically go over.
I don't put much weight on one big score from the previous night. I'd rather know whether the conditions and pitching actually point towards another high-scoring game.
How Are Our MLB Predictions Prepared?
I don't use one stat to make a pick. ERA is useful, but it can hide a few things. I also check walks, strikeouts and home runs allowed. If a pitcher keeps putting runners on base, I want to know why before trusting him. Then come the lineups and bullpen. An injured power hitter can change my view of the over/under, while a tired relief corps makes me less confident about a team protecting its lead.
Home and away records get a look, too. So do the ballpark and weather conditions. I won't pretend these factors always point in the same direction. Sometimes they do the opposite, and that's when I become more cautious. The odds get the final say in whether a pick is worth considering. I can like a team's chances and still leave the game alone if the price is poor. There are enough games on the MLB schedule without forcing a bet on every one.
When Are MLB Predictions Updated?
I revisit my picks when new information comes in. A late change to the starting pitcher can affect the whole matchup, and confirmed lineups sometimes give me a reason to reconsider. I also check the odds again before the game starts. If the price has moved sharply, I want to know what caused it. Sometimes the original pick still makes sense. Sometimes it doesn't. I'd rather change my mind than stick with a prediction that no longer looks right.